Investor: CASE FOR GOLD
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS INFORMATION EXPRESSES THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS OF SEABRIDGE GOLD MANAGEMENT AND IS NOT INTENDED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. SEABRIDGE GOLD IS NOT LICENSED AS AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 21st July 2017
Are US Equities in a Bubble?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 13th July 2017
The Bubble Continues
Surviving the Bubble: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Gold
Wednesday, 28th June 2017
Presentation on the Gold Market given by Seabridge co-founder, Jim Anthony, during the 2017 Annual General Meeting in Toronto.
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 6th June 2017
Gold Breaks Out
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 22nd May 2017
Is the Gold Correction Over?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 1st May 2017
What's Not Up for Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 21st March 2017
The Debt Ceiling Shortly Becomes Issue #1
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 14th March 2017
The Debt Ceiling Returns
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 3rd March 2017
Inflation, the Dollar and Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 1st March 2017
The Fantasy Continues
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 30th January 2017
Long Liquidation Looks Bullish for Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 23rd January 2017
Signs of a Turn in Gold?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 17th January 2017
Troubling Contradictions in Trumponomics
REVIEW OF THE GOLD MARKET
Sunday, 11th December 2016
An overview of recent developments in the gold market and why gold investors should not fear the Fed.
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 2nd December 2016
As the Trump Rally Fizzles, Attention Turns Back to Reality
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 22nd November 2016
Why Trump Can’t Be Reagan
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 20th November 2016
Facts vs. Fantasy: Can Trump Meet the Market's Expectations?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 14th November 2016
This Is What a Mania Looks Like
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 10th November 2016
Thinking Through the Market Response to the Election
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 30th October 2016
Respect the Bean: How a Rapid Increase in Soybean Exports Drives Fed Policy. Really.
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 2nd October 2016
Another Banking Crisis Begins?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 28th September 2016
Ending With a Bang, Not a Whimper
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 6th September 2016
Proof Positive that the Fed Has No clue
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 29th August 2016
What Does A Bond Crash Look Like?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 24th August 2016
Keynesian Economics and the End of Central Bank Credibility
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 31st July 2016
Latest GDP Numbers Suggest More Fed Stimulus
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Saturday, 16th July 2016
As Equities Fly, Hang on to Your Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 4th July 2016
This is What a Bond Bubble Looks Like
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 19th June 2016
The Fed Capitulates
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 14th June 2016
The Spring Winds Tighter on Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 6th June 2016
Is the Gold Correction Over?
From the Seabridge Gold 2015 Annual Report
Friday, 27th May 2016
Weights, Measures & Others Constants
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 9th May 2016
Gold Correction Finally Arrives?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 8th May 2016
Could Fractional Gold Banking Cause a Buying Panic?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 2nd May 2016
How Far Can Gold Go?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 18th April 2016
Gold Correction Finished or Not?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 20th March 2016
Equities: the Anti-Gold Investment Stumbles
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 17th March 2016
Fed Credibility Takes Another Hit
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 25th February 2016
Recession Draws Closer
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 23rd February 2016
Some Indicators of a Gold Bull Market
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 14th February 2016
The Credit Market Cuts Rates While the Fed Pretends to Hike
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 7th February 2016
Gold Outperforming Equities: Further Evidence of a Market Turn
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 1st February 2016
Shift in Speculative Gold Positioning Suggests Transition to Bull Market
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 26th January 2016
Tumbling Bank Stocks Point to Problems in the Financial System?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 19th January 2016
Credit Markets Betting Against the Fed?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 18th January 2016
US GDP Shocker Another Blow to Fed Credibility
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 14th January 2016
Gold Investors Watching Bank Stocks
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 5th January 2016
Fed Credibility at Risk as the Economic Illusion Begins to Vaporize
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 21st December 2015
Gold on the brink of a breakout?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Saturday, 5th December 2015
COT Update: The shorts bring lots of rocket fuel to a nascent gold rally
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 30th November 2015
Trader Positioning Signals Potential Rally in Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 17th November 2015
Sentiment Indicators Support End to Gold Correction
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 10th November 2015
More on Interest Rates and Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Saturday, 7th November 2015
Fed Fears Bring Down Gold
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 5th November 2015
Is the Gold Correction Done?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Sunday, 25th October 2015
Gold: To correct or not to correct?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 14th October 2015
The Fed is Wrong (Again): America is Slowing Down (Fast?)
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 2nd October 2015
What does the jobs report mean?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 24th September 2015
Short Covering Propels Gold Rally: Will New Longs Follow?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 18th September 2015
The Bear Thesis on Gold Unwinds
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 8th September 2015
The Gold Basis: Pointing the Way Higher?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 3rd September 2015
Raising Rates: Just How Will the Fed Do It?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 25th August 2015
It's Not Just China
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 21st August 2015
Risk Aversion Grows: Good for Gold?
GOLD MRKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 20th August 2015
Stars Align for Gold as Reality Begins to Hit
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 5th August 2015
Where is the recovery? Part 2
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 3rd August 2015
Where is the recovery?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 15th July 2015
US Consumers Head Towards Recession?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Wednesday, 8th July 2015
Gold: It's Probably Not as Hopeless as It Looks
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 7th July 2015
Is Greece a Real Financial Crisis? Inflationism and Terminal Debt
Gold Market Flash Note
Thursday, 2nd July 2015
Another Stinker Jobs Report
Gold Market Flash Note
Tuesday, 30th June 2015
With Europe in Crisis, Why is Gold Down?
Gold Market Flash Note
Tuesday, 30th June 2015
Further Evidence of a US Recession?
The Gold Market Update
Wednesday, 24th June 2015
A summary of the presentation to shareholders at the Annual General Meeting
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 8th May 2015
Why US Job Reports Make No Sense
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 20th April 2015
Has the US dollar topped?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 10th April 2015
An Earnings Recession Coming Up
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 7th April 2015
When is bad news finally going to be bad news?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 23rd March 2015
It looks like gold has bottomed
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 2nd March 2015
Gold ready for a bounce?
GOLD MARKET Flash Note
Monday, 16th February 2015
Short term, the trend in gold is likely down
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 10th February 2015
Can the Fed save the stock market?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Thursday, 5th February 2015
Is printing money bullish for gold?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Tuesday, 3rd February 2015
The Central Bank deflation scam
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Friday, 30th January 2015
Leaning the wrong way?
GOLD MARKET FLASH NOTE
Monday, 26th January 2015
How is the Federal Reserve like the Swiss National Bank?
Gold Market Flash Note
Wednesday, 21st January 2015
When Gentlemen Prefer Bonds?
Gold Market Flash Note
Tuesday, 20th January 2015
When risk does well, gold does not
Gold Market Flash Note
Friday, 16th January 2015
Bank Stocks Signaling Higher Gold Price?
The Gold Market
Thursday, 13th November 2014
In our opinion, the gold price is a measure of the level of perceived risk in the financial system. We think that risks to the financial system and financial asset valuations have probably never been higher but the market continues to disagree. We are therefore faced with a widening gap between our expectations for the gold price and where it actually trades. This past quarter was an especially brutal one for gold and gold stocks, which was not what we had anticipated. The market is always right in the short term, but we do not believe it is properly discounting systemic risks, just as it failed to do in early 2000 and early 2008.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 13th August 2014
It is now commonplace for gold market analysts to comment on the extraordinary movement of physical gold from west to east. There is no question that Asian demand has increased sharply as the price has fallen over the past two years and it is not difficult to trace the movement from London vaults (via U.K export data) to Switzerland for refining and re-export (thanks to the Swiss for beginning to publish gold import-export data) on to Hong Kong.
The Gold Market
Monday, 14th April 2014
The gold market has probably never had as many moving parts as it does today. There are many factors arguing for a much higher gold price in the current year and we believe that gold has commenced a new bull market since the New Year. We will note some of these bullish factors below. But the over-riding issue remains one of investor confidence in financial markets and the financial system. For this reason, gold and financial markets generally move in opposite directions over the long term, with one turning bearish as the other turns bullish.
Our Current Views on the Gold Market
Wednesday, 29th January 2014
The Gold Market: Assessing the bear case
Wednesday, 13th November 2013
We cannot remember a more frustrating gold market. Seabridge was founded in 1999 when gold was trading at US$270 per ounce and that was a difficult market too, but the fundamentals for gold were largely hidden from view (although we saw them coming) and we did not expect a sympathetic response for a start-up company at the tail end of a 20 year bear market. Now, with the gold price almost five times higher, one of the world's largest reserves of gold and copper and extraordinary gold fundamentals for all to see, we find that many investors are not interested. For the last year in particular, the bears have been in control and they have been the big winners in gold and gold stocks. So, in this report, we look at the gold bear position to see what they have going for them.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 14th August 2013
As we have always said (in good company with Jim Grant), the gold price is a reciprocal (inverse) of public confidence in central banks and financial assets-stocks and bonds. We believe that the fundamentals are telling us that financial assets should be trading at much lower levels and gold should be much higher. The fundamentals are what matter in the long run. But the markets do not currently agree with our interpretation of the fundamentals and, in the short run, the markets are always right. Equities are higher and gold is lower.
The Gold Market
Tuesday, 9th April 2013
As we write this, the gold price is weak and sentiment has never been more negative. Measures such as the Daily Sentiment Indicator have recently hit lows last seen in 1994 and 1997 while MarketVane's bullish consensus and Hulbert's HGNSI index of gold portfolio managers have broken to lows below those recorded in 2008. The major banks have cut their price forecasts and some have declared an end to the bull market for gold which has tallied 11 straight years of higher closing prices. Could all these people be wrong?
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 14th November 2012
Gold has now been in correction mode for more than a year. The fundamentals are strong...one central bank after another has embraced monetary expansion, sovereign debt continues to grow, the world economy continues to slow and enormous amounts of public and private debt need to be rolled over at very low interest rates. This back drop supports ongoing devaluation of paper currencies and a rising gold price, but the market seems hesitant to believe it and embrace the one reliable store of value that can protect against an organized assault on the value of money.
The Gold Market
Tuesday, 14th August 2012
Since 2002 we have argued in these pages that: (1) the world's developed economies were floating on an historic sea of credit which was mimicking an economic boom; (2) the credit bubble would burst; (3) the result would not be a deflationary bust because central bank policy would be to expand the money supply and weaken currencies rather than allow a pandemic of defaults; and (4) financial assets and fiat currencies would suffer a crippling loss of confidence, making gold the best performing asset of the next decade or more.
The Gold Market
Monday, 16th April 2012
It sometimes seems to us that no investment attracts more negative commentary than gold. In the past six months, investors have been treated to yet another round of high-profile analyses declaring that the gold bull market is dead. Since these analysts are not on record as having predicted the gold market's consecutive 10 year bull run and its gain of more than 600%, why would anyone listen to them? But investors do listen to this nonsense and so it needs to be addressed.
The Gold Market: Making sense of chaos
Friday, 11th November 2011
The third quarter began well for gold and proceeded to get better until September 21 when it seemed to step into space, falling 20% ($280) in just a few days. This event demonstrated how sensitive gold is to perceptions of central bank policy. What happened?
Why is the gold price down when there is so much financial turmoil?
Friday, 30th September 2011
It is never easy to say with certainty what is happening day-to-day in the gold market. By nature, this is a private market which is opaque by design...those who own gold do so in part because it affords anonymity and independence from the conventional financial system. That said, here is our best guess as to the reasons behind the 20% decline in the spot price of gold from its recent high above $1900 to a low of $1535.
Does gold hedge against inflation?
Tuesday, 27th September 2011
Yes, depending on what you mean by inflation. Most people assume it means increases in the CPI - Consumer Price Index. Using this argument, gold's high of USD$852 per ounce in 1980 should equate to an inflation-adjusted high of about $2,400 today.
BASIC FACTS ABOUT GOLD
Thursday, 8th September 2011
There are about 5 billion ounces of above ground gold supply worth about USD 9 trillion at current prices. Less than half of this is in deliverable, investment-grade form. The above ground gold supply is growing at about 1.5% annually, the 300 year average.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 10th August 2011
In our last report in early May, we suggested that investors buckle up in preparation for a run in the gold price. Events have unfolded as expected. Gold has now established its own path as the premier vehicle for the preservation of wealth independent of currencies and other asset classes (whether commodities, equities or bonds). The decision in early August by the Swiss and Japanese central banks to intervene in the markets to weaken their currencies has served notice that strong currency alternatives to gold will not be tolerated. And gold is once again the preferred reserve asset of the world's central banks: South Korea, Thailand and Kazakhstan joined the ranks of buyers in the last 30 days.
The Gold Market: Time to Buckle Up?
Wednesday, 11th May 2011
Is the gold market now approaching its moment of truth? The mainstream continues to ignore the relentless rise of the gold price, proclaiming each new high to be a 'bubble' top, noting again and again that gold has no real use, cannot be eaten and pays no dividend or interest. But in our view, beneath the surface, confidence in the current monetary order is being eaten away by the twin cancers of rising debt and reckless monetary expansion. Are we approaching a major market dislocation which fundamentally changes the perceived value of gold?
The Gold Market
Thursday, 11th November 2010
In our view, the next phase of the gold market has begun. The stealth bull market of the past 10 years is now going main stream. For the last decade, gold has mostly traded with the commodity complex, negatively correlated to the US dollar, in what has recently been called the 'risk-on-risk-off'' trade. But as
The Gold Market
Monday, 9th August 2010
In our view, the next leg up in the gold price is imminent. The deflation scare we have been predicting is now in full bloom, right on schedule. The Keynesian inflationist economists are using this fear to gather support for an expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet in the form of further quantitative easing ("QE").
The Gold Market
Friday, 23rd April 2010
In our Shareholder Reports, we have been saying for a decade that the price of gold is inversely related to investor confidence in paper assets - fiat currencies, stocks and bonds. As confidence in these paper claims declines, the relative value of physical gold tends to rise.
BASIC FACTS ABOUT GOLD
Wednesday, 18th November 2009
There are about 5 billion ounces of above ground gold supply worth about USD 5 trillion at current prices. Perhaps half of this is in deliverable, investment-grade form.
The Gold Market
Thursday, 12th November 2009
In the past quarter, gold has performed unusually well in all major currencies, suggesting that a shift has taken place in investor sentiment. We believe the shift reflects the growing fact of inflation, not the kind that can be measured on the supermarket shelves [yet] but rather the inflation of money supply and liquidity that depreciates the perceived future value of fiat money... in other words, currency debasement.
THE GOLD MARKET
Thursday, 13th August 2009
If you watch financial television, you know that a new consensus has developed…the recession is over and the world is about to return to normal. The stock market, corporate bonds and many commodities have soared in price. The banking system has stabilized and the threat of systemic collapse has receded into the far distance. Welcome to the scariest depression we never had. Fear has left us and greed is back.
THE GOLD MARKET
Monday, 4th May 2009
Financial markets during the last six months have been as volatile and difficult to read as any in history. The massive credit bubble which we had described in our Shareholder Reports for the last five years finally burst and the response by governments and central banks has been much as we predicted, only more so.
THE GOLD MARKET
Friday, 14th November 2008
As we have argued for many years, the world economy has been in the grip of an historic credit bubble. This bubble is now collapsing faster than we could have imagined, thanks in large part to the erratic policies of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve who saved a number of institutions from bankruptcies before inexplicably losing their nerve on Lehman Bros., much to the detriment of confidence in the world financial system. Deleveraging of the private sector is now proceeding at a rapid pace in parallel with an unprecedented acceleration in the growth of public sector leverage.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 13th August 2008
The drop in gold prices and gold equities over the past month has been precipitous. From its recent high above US$960, the gold price has fallen by about 15% at the time of this report.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 16th April 2008
Over the past several months, events have unfolded much as we had predicted. The impact of years of lax and excessive lending in the U.S. residential real estate market finally started to come to light in the form of accelerating delinquencies and foreclosures.
The Gold Market
Friday, 9th November 2007
Re-reading the gold market report from our June 30, 2007 report, even we are surprised by the prescience of our comments.
The Gold Market
Tuesday, 7th August 2007
The past several weeks, we have been treated to some of the most extraordinary developments we have seen in financial markets in many years. Gold has not yet expressed its response but, in our opinion, the stage has now been set for reinstatement of gold as a preferred investment in the months ahead.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 2nd May 2007
As we write this, the mood is somewhat sour in the gold market. Gold has failed to reach the highs of last May, never mind the 1980 record high. Recently, other investment classes which are normally countercyclical to gold such as equities and industrial metals have performed better than gold although the gold price remains in an up-trend against the U.S. dollar. In general, gold shares have underperformed gold itself for more than the last three years, with notable exceptions such as Seabridge.
The Gold Market
Friday, 10th November 2006
Gold continued its downward trend in the third quarter, reaching a low of US$560 per ounce in early October. A great many self-appointed experts declared that the bull market in commodities had ended and applied this assessment to gold as well although there is very little evidence to support the notion that gold is a commodity like any other. Despair mounted, marking the bottom of a needed correction from the May high near $730. The gold price has since recovered strongly.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 9th August 2006
Volatility was the outstanding feature of the gold market in the second quarter of this year. After barely nudging through $500 at year-end, gold sprinted into the $730 area in May on perceptions that global liquidity would continue to expand rapidly. These perceptions quickly did an about face, led by the Bank of Japan’s move to withdraw substantial liquidity from its banking system. Gold fell precipitously, hitting a low of $541 in overnight markets before bouncing off its 200-day moving average, just as it has done in every other major correction since 2001. Recovery has been uncharacteristically swift with gold trading around the $650 mark as this is written.
The Gold Market
Wednesday, 3rd May 2006
At Seabridge, it is our contention that the real bull market in gold may not have begun yet. There is a bull market in commodities in which gold has participated somewhat fitfully but this bull market is based upon a perceived shortage of commodities in response to rapid economic growth. Commodity production has been constrained by a lack of investment due to low prices in the 1980s and 1990s while demand has risen in the third world, especially China. This imbalance has been made much worse by an unprecedented flow of speculative capital from commodity and hedge funds chasing momentum and driving prices to record highs in nominal terms.
The Gold Market
Tuesday, 14th March 2006
The past year was a most interesting one for gold. On the one hand, the gold price rose 18% during 2005 and touched a 25 year high early in 2006. Gold rose against all major currencies and against most other asset classes including U.S. equities and bonds. The gold market also exhibited increased momentum as it attracted new investment flows. It took the gold price three years to rise 25% from its bear market low of U.S.$252 set in 1999. It took only 90 days for the gold price to rise 25% from U.S.$440 to U.S.$550 as we entered 2006.
